Monday, June 9, 2008

It's Official: Birth Rate Too Low

There's a lot that could be discussed in this little news article.

Current birth rate too low to overcome demographic crisis
May 29, 2008

Yuriy Pavlenko, the Family, Youth, and Sports minister, says that Ukrainian families need to have a minimum of two children to overcome the demographic crisis in Ukraine (see my earlier blog post).

He mentions the current Fertility Rate, which is 1.33, up from 1.20. He would like to see it at 2.0 (which was the U.S. rate in 1999). Interestingly, even at 2.0, there would continue to be a demographic crisis. See discussion of Replacement Rate here:

"The TFR required for a closed population to eventually reach equilibrium in size ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in developing countries and is near 2.1 in many developed countries (2.075 in the UK for example). However, it may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium."
I also posted earlier about the cash benefits that families receive for babies. The news report lists the amounts as: $2,400 for the first baby, $5,000 for the second, $10,000 for the third and each following baby.

Interestingly, he also reports that, contrary to what I noted in my blog post, the birth rate in "problem families" did not increase because of the monetary payments.

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